북한의 탄두 미사일 실험에 봇물처럼 쏟아지는 미국내 언론, 전문가, 평화 운동가들의 글 올립니다. 영어로 모두 이해 하시지 못하더라도 클릭하시고 쇼셜 미디어에 공유등으로 국제 평화 연대에 동참해 주시기 바랍니다.
북한은 핵보유로 미국으로부터 안보를 확보한후 다음 단계 경제 개발에 주력할 것으로 보이는 이때 한미동맹을 진정으로 존중한다면 미국은 최소한 문재인 정부가 제안안 평창올림픽 전후까지 한미군사훈련 중단 혹은 연기하여야 한다는 논평들이 포함되어 있습니다.
미국내 이렇게 한반도 평화를 위한 거대한 여론 형성되고 있을때 대한민국도 단결해야 합니다. 북한을 위해서 아닌 미국은 대한민국을 위해서 북미 대화 촉구합니다.
문재인 대통령의 강력한 리더쉽이 필요합니다. 미국이 대한민국의 진정한 친구인지, 동맹인지 실험대입니다.
–시몬 천 드림
"At the end of the day … a diplomatic solution [will be] necessary for the conflict with North Korea," Hardt said…. Germany, Britain and Sweden share the former East Germany's embassy compound in North Korea and are expected to continue their diplomatic missions despite Washington's latest warnings. Deutsche Welle
Taking the first step toward de-escalation by delaying or suspending the military exercises would not be a sign of weakness, but rather a sign of true leadership. John Rainwater
Time for Real Talk!
Dear Esteemed Friend—an update on the war and peace in the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia, and the world!
In this 280-characters-twitter age, one thing that makes me envy about Russia is that it has Leo Tolstoy who wrote 587,257 words for his War and Peace. Tolstoy must have loved the cause (peace), humanity and his mother Russia so much that he poured 587,257 words: his heart!
With the same affection and respect for those who fight for peace in words and reasoning with their heart and souls, I include here long references on how the world is responding to the ongoing threat of nuclear war.
Even if you don’t have either the time or interest to review all, just go on and click the link (21st’s finger-tip revolution!); your little action will help these references populate and appear in search engines. (I shamelessly included my own, imperfect and unremarkable interviews as wellJ).
Please help us! Diplomacy Now!
1.Deutsche Welle. Germany to continue diplomatic ties with North Korea, CDU’s Jurgen Hardt tells DW. 도이취 웰리. 독일은 (미국이 압력하는) 북한과 외교 단절 않을 것이다. 북한과 외교가 절대 필요하다.
"At the end of the day … a diplomatic solution [will be] necessary for the conflict with North Korea," Hardt said…. Germany, Britain and Sweden share the former East Germany's embassy compound in North Korea and are expected to continue their diplomatic missions despite Washington's latest warnings.
2.CNN International 시엔엔. 이렇게 거대한 미사일 개발하고 작동이 가능케 한 나라는 소수다.
Footage shows North Korea's Hwasong-15 missile launch earlier this week. "There are not a lot of countries who could build a missile this big and have it work," one analyst said. http://cnn.it/2AhlIta
"This isn't just a big missile for North Korea this is a big missile in general," Michael Duitsman, also research associate at CNS, told CNN. "There are not a lot of countries who could build a missile this big and have it work." There's likely another test to come
3.John Burroughs. Newsweek. We Can’t Attack North Korea. It’s Against the Law. 뉴스 위크. (미국은) 북한을 공격할수 없다. 국제법 위반이다.
유엔 헌장 51조 위반이다… 부시 행정부 이후 미국은 유엔 헌장 위헌하는 침략 전쟁을 자행해 왔다.
Article 51 of the U.N. Charter does recognize “the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs … until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.” But since the George W. Bush administration, U.S. doctrine has permitted preemptive attacks against serious threats, particularly weapons of mass destruction. While the term is usually avoided, this is essentially a doctrine allowing preventive war. This August, Trump’s chief of staff, General H. R. McMaster, broke protocol and referred to a possible “preventive war” against North Korea. There was zero discussion at the hearing of the illegality of the U.S. attacking North Korea under the U.N. Charter....Yet as we learned from the Iraq War, there is great wisdom in the charter requirement that peaceful solutions, however difficult to achieve, take precedence over resorting to force. http://www.newsweek.com/we-cant-attack-north-korea-its-against-law-727009
4.John Burroughs. The Hill. Despite assurances, only Trump stands between peace, nuclear war.
오직 트럼프만이 평화와 핵 전쟁 사이에서 (운명을 결정할) 위치에 서 있다. 많은 미국 의원들은 트럼프 행정부의 핵전쟁 초래 가능성에 우려, 대통령의 핵전쟁 유발 억제, 금지 법안을 미의회에 통과시키려고 노력하고 있다. Some in Congress want to change that through legislation. Senator Markey said in the hearing that we cannot rely on civilian and military officials to delay or block the president from starting a nuclear war. Markey and Representative Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) have proposed a bill requiring Congressional approval for use of nuclear weapons (unless the United States or its allies are under nuclear attack). Another bill just tabled by Representative Adam Smith (D-Wash.) would simply declare that the policy of the United States is not to use nuclear weapons first.... Whether and how presidential authority to order nuclear strikes can be limited is a live, high-stakes question. We don’t yet know the answer, but as tensions with North Korea escalate, and “World War III” seems less and less like hyperbole, it’s getting more urgent to find out. http://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/361344-despite-assurances-only-trump-stands-between-peace-and-nuclear-war#.WhRWfW1PqQg.twitter
5.John Rainwater. Op-ed, U.S. News & World Report.
트럼프 행정부는 북한의 핵실험, 미사일 실험 동결 조건인 한미합동 군사 훈련 잠정적으로 중단 하거나 연기 제시하는 대한민국 정부의 요구를 받아 들여라. 위기 수위를 낮추기 위해 (문재인 정부가 요구하듯이 미국이 평창 겨울 올림픽 전후기해) 군사훈련 연기 혹은 중단하는 것은 (미국이 한미동맹 진정으로 존경한다면) 미국의 진정한 리더쉽 표출이다.
Instead of responding in kind, the Trump administration should take South Korea up on its suggestion of a delay in joint military exercises and give the "freeze for freeze" approach a second look. Taking the first step toward de-escalation by delaying or suspending the military exercises would not be a sign of weakness, but rather a sign of true leadership.
6.Robert Alvarez. End the 67-year war. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
67년 (한국) 전쟁 종식 하라. 핵과학자들의 불리턴.
북핵 개발 위기 대응 클린턴 행정부와 북한의 협정을 파기하고 북한 정권 교체와 선제 공격 정책을 채택한 미국 공화당 행정부가 오늘의 핵 위기를 초래했다.
In the end, the Bush administration’s efforts to resolve the impasse on North Korea’s nuclear program—aka the Six-Party Talks—failed, largely because of the United States’ adamant support for regime change in North Korea and persistent “all or nothing” demands for a complete dismantlement of the North’s nuclear program before serious negotiations could take place. Also, with the US presidential election nearing, the North Koreans had to have remembered how abruptly the plug had been pulled on the Agreed Framework after the 2000 election.
Dealing with the nuclear weapons state of North Korea… But the Agreed Framework and its collapse provide an important lesson about the pitfalls of the pursuit of regime change. Now, a nuclear arms control agreement may be the only way to bring this over-long chapter of the Cold War to a peaceful close. It’s difficult to persuade someone to make a deal, if he is certain you’re planning to kill him, no matter what he does. https://thebulletin.org/end-67-year-war11100
7. S. Korea does not see N.K. as crossing `red line’ with new ICBM test.
"The government does not think that North Korea's latest test demonstrated full capability for an ICBM, including the re-entry technology and a precision guidance system. Seoul does not view the North as crossing the red line," Lee Eugene, vice spokesperson at the ministry, told a press briefing. Lee said that North Korea is likely to refrain from additional provocations for the time being if there is no sudden change in the current security situation. "If there is no extreme change in the situation or other external factors, North Korea is highly likely to refrain from additional provocations for the time being. For the North, a seasonal factor could be factored in," she said. http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/12/01/0200000000AEN20171201006500315.html
8. Tim Shorrock. North Korea Tests Its Third ICBM: What’s Next?
팀 슈락. 미국 정부는 60일 동안 만일 평양은 미사일 실험 중단하면 김정은 정권과 직접 대화하겠다고 약속 했다는 보도가 있었다. 그러나 미국은 (75일 동안 북한의 평화 제스쳐 불구하고) 협상을 위해서 꼼짝도 하지 않았다.
Cirincione, who called the ICBM test a “very serious step forward” for the North, pointed to recent reports that the US government has said privately that if Pyongyang halted its testing for 60 days, that would be the signal Washington needed to begin direct dialogue with the Kim regime. Yet, despite the North’s 74-day stoppage, “we didn’t move towards any negotiations,” he noted. http://lobelog.com/north-korea-tests-its-third-icbm-whats-next/
9. NPR. How Diplomatic Engagement With North Korea Could Proceed
미국 공영 라디오. 북한과의 외교 가능성. 미국 고위 북한 전문가: 트럼프 행정부 취임전 북한은 무조건적인 협상을 심각하게 고려했었다. 미국이 기회를 놓쳤다. 그러나 (최근 실험으로 승리했다고 자축하는 북한의 성명을 보면 핵 목표 달성했음으로) 협상으로 정치, 경제적인 타협을 미국으로부터 받아 낼 준비.
DIMAGGIO: Yes. In discussions I had with North Korean officials right after the Trump administration came into office, they made it quite clear that they were open to considering official talks without preconditions. I think that was a missed opportunity by the administration early on. Keep in mind that was before the heated rhetoric began, before the rocket man insults, which has really soured the atmosphere now.
But even still, I think with this test, it shows - and more importantly, with this announcement - that they have completed their nuclear force. It likely indicates that they're getting ready to perhaps move to negotiations to try to extract both political security as well as economic concessions.
10. The New York Times. North Korea Says It’s Now a Nuclear state. Could that Mean It’s Ready Talk? 뉴욕 타임지. 북한은 핵 보유국이라 선언했다. 이제 대화하겠다는 것일까? 미국 전 동북아시아 담당 고위 관료: 북한은 승리라고 선언하면으로서 당분간 도발적인 실험을 중단하고…미국이 비핵화 목적이 아닌 한반도 위기 수위를 낯주는 목적 달성 위해 협상 하기를 기대하고 있을지 모른다.
“The North Korean push for a nuclear missile deterrent is ‘complete’ when Kim Jong-un says it is,” said Daniel R. Russel, who served as assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs until last March. “He hasn’t demonstrated a viable re-entry vehicle. He hasn’t conducted an atmospheric nuclear test.” “Instead,” Mr. Russel said, “he’s chosen to declare victory, which in my view means that he is likely to pause provocations in the expectation that China, or better yet the U.S., will start making proposals for de-escalation instead of denuclearization.”
11. S. Korea, U.S. not considering any military measures against N. Korea: Cheong Wa Dae
12. The New York Times. Seven Critical Truths About North Korea
(3) North Korea is rational, which means it’s unlikely to start a war.
뉴욕 타임지. 북한에 관한 7가지 진실.
진실 (3) 북한은 이성적이다. 전쟁을 시작할 가능성은 거의 없다.
The “good” news is that North Korea has no apparent intention of starting a war, which it would surely lose. In other words, no, North Korea is probably not going to nuke your city out of the blue. This often gets lost in portrayals of Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, as a wild-eyed lunatic. But while Mr. Kim might be eccentric, he has repeatedly proven himself to be rational. Ruthless and morally reprehensible, but rational. And no rational leader invites national suicide, which is all Mr. Kim would achieve by provoking a war.
13. North Korea’s ICBM won’t cause a war but it will damage the United states’ standing in the world 북한의 핵탄두는 전쟁 일으키지 않을 것이나 미국의 국제 위상에 치명적이다. 대한민국은 미국의 북한 선제 공격 가능성에 심각한 우려라고 본다.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in indirectly captured this point when, in response to this week’s successful test of a long-range missile by North Korea, he said, “We must stop a situation where North Korea miscalculates and threatens us with nuclear weapons or where the United States considers a pre-emptive strike.” Precisely at the moment South Korea would be expected to be most dependent on, and solicitous of, the United States, its president is instead considering how to counter an American move. That speaks volumes, as does Trump’s primary response to the launch: seeking the intervention of the Chinese in putting pressure on Pyongyang.
14. ‘If US goes to war against N Korea, Pyongyang will fight back’
미국이 만일 북한과 전쟁 하면 평양은 반드시 싸울 준비가 되어있다.
I think the Kim Jong-un government and North Korea made it very clear in their New Year’s message to the nation that they were planning to go forward in what they call the final stage of the nuclear weapons program, so that DPRK would be understood to be a nuclear power by the world. And by having this kind of very advanced intercontinental ballistic missile test which was successful and traveled 2,780 miles straight up and could have, if flown horizontally, travelled about 8,000 miles, in other words, the distance to Washington DC. It is clear that the DPRK which has been treated as a rogue nation led by crazy people, a bunch of peasants, maybe ignorant, has in fact developed effective missile technology program and nuclear technology program which they consider to be existentially important for their having a deterrent against the menace that they perceive from the US – the largest military in the world.
15. North Korea’s ICBM Test is a Game-Changer: Will US Choose War or Peace?
북한의 탄도 미사일. 미국의 선택은 전쟁일까, 평화일까?
Hyun Lee 현리 (재미교포 평화 운동가). 3:50 minute mark: North Korea’s goal...to come to the negotiating table as a nuclear power. Yesterday North Korea achieved that goal. 북한은 핵보유국으로서 (미국과) 협상에 나올것을 오래전 부터 준비해 왔다. 그 목적을 이제 달성하였다…
NK’s pursuit of nuclear power is to move on to the next stage…economic development… I am appalled by the lack of critical analysis in the mainstream media. “Three nuclear-powered carrier groups with a full flotilla of support vessels, daily nuclear bombing runs, lurking nuclear submarines, massive war games involving decapitation strikes” by the United States do not pose a threat? Only North Korea poses a threat to the world? 북한 핵 추구의 근본 목적은 미국의 위협에 대응 핵으로 안보를 확실하게 한 후 경제 개발이다. 북한은 이제 외교와 협상을 통해 다음 단계인 경제 개발에 주력할 준비가 되어있을 것이다...
시몬 천 박사